![]() Its outlook for total sales is 13.0 to 14.4 million units versus a pre-virus baseline of 16.8 million units.Even the Ferraris seemed impressed by the flying art car making its American debut inside garage-cum-gallery TheArsenale at Art Basel Miami Beach this week. Power forecasts a 1 - 2 million vehicle drop in new-car sales versus its pre-virus baseline forecast of 13.4 million for the 2020 calendar year. "Our own consumer research has shown that 72% of car shoppers state that their need for a vehicle has remained the same or increased due to the pandemic."Īt retail, J.D. ![]() "The automotive industry is showing positive signs of a rebound and, while we are projecting a 21% decline in retail sales for May under this unprecedented environment, it's quite encouraging," said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG. Whether that's a win or a loss depends upon your point of view. Power largely concurs, saying its retail sales outlook for the month of May is 991,000 units, a decline of 24% from its pre-virus forecast. It expects retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to decrease 21% from a year ago. TrueCar's analytics subsidiary ALG projects May total new vehicle sales of 1,080,075 units, down 32% from a year ago. ![]() So when you read all the tea leaves, what are the takeaways?įirst, May totals will be down significantly from May of last year with fleet sales taking an especially big hit. In May used-vehicle retail sales at franchised dealers are down 13% from Power's pre-virus forecast, significantly out-performing new-vehicle sales that are down 25%. As Jominy pointed out, during challenging economic times some new-vehicle shoppers switch to lower-cost used vehicles. These consumers won't return to the market until their renewed leases run out.Īnother big change was the shift from new cars to used cars. First, the incentives to purchase a vehicle were arguably better than those to lease, but, more troubling for future new-car sales, during the depths of the virus many current lessees renewed their leases rather than turning in their cars and acquiring a new vehicle. That's down nearly 10 percentage points from pre-virus levels. Power reported that only 22% of the new cars sold by dealers during the week ending May 24 were leased. The Memorial Day weekend also pointed to some changes in the auto marketplace that probably won't revert to norms for weeks or even months. When one combines that with the fact that the Memorial Weekend was the first opportunity many Americans had to venture out from their homes in more than a month it is not surprising that many of them decided that the first place they wanted to go was not a car dealership. This year's Memorial Day sales incentives weren't demonstrably better than those of the weeks prior to the holiday weekend, and by objective measures, many weren't as good. Of course, there was another reason that Memorial Day sales weren't the home run that many had hoped for - Memorial Day had a tough act to follow. Fear of the coronavirus kept many older buyers at home while shortages of pickups began to crop up.
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